By Mary Anne Potts
The headlines are buzzing: recent reports—including coverage in Carbon Herald—suggest that Microsoft may be pausing new carbon removal (CDR) purchases.
As the primary driver of demand in the global carbon market, even the possibility of Microsoft hitting the brakes while they "reset" their portfolio has sent ripples through the industry. While existing contracts remain in place, the message is clear: the current model is still maturing and more fragile than many assumed
At Creekside Carbon, we don’t see this as a collapse of the market. We see it as a long-overdue signal that the "business as usual" approach to carbon is broken.
While details are still emerging, the reaction itself highlights something important.
The Problem Isn’t Supply—It’s Capital
This moment isn’t just about Microsoft. It’s a broader stress test for the ecosystem.
When a single buyer pauses, it raises a bigger question: Who else is prepared to show up—and with what kind of capital?
Whether or not this pause is temporary, the market’s reaction reveals when one buyer slowing down impacts an entire global market, the issue isn’t a lack of farmers willing to do the work. The issue is how capital flows—or rather, how it fails to flow.
Currently, the voluntary carbon market is built on a "pay later" model. Farmers are expected to:
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Finance the transition to regenerative practices themselves.
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Wait 6–18 months (or longer) to see a single cent of carbon revenue.
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Remain dependent on downstream corporate giants whose priorities can shift with a single press release.
Heidi Baxter, who has spent years navigating the intersection of AgTech and carbon markets, sees this as a fundamental design flaw.
"The market depends on a handful of buyers and chronically delayed payments,” says Baxter. “Creekside exists to fix both. We’re shifting from carbon credits as a delayed outcome to carbon payments as more immediate capital. The market pays eventually—farmers need to be paid as soon as the asset is produced.
We’re doing this by tapping into investors looking to bridge the gap, knowing that sustainability assets, although volatile, will play a long term role in farm economics.”
Big Rules Over Small: The Corporate Game
Josh McClain, a regenerative farmer in Northwest Kansas, points to the broader power dynamics at play:
“This isn’t surprising. Large buyers have always had the ability to influence timing and pricing in emerging markets. When they pause, the ripple effects are immediate.”
He continues:
“As long as capital is concentrated in a few hands, the system will struggle to scale in a way that works for everyone—especially the farmers doing the work. If we want this market to mature, it has to stand on more than a small group of buyers.”
The takeaway isn’t that corporate buyers don’t matter—they do. But a market built on a narrow demand base and delayed payments isn’t durable.
The Creekside Response: A New Way to Back Farmers
Microsoft’s pause—real or rumored—reinforces our founding thesis: The credit is the mechanism, but the connection is the value.
The carbon market shouldn't be a playground for corporate "portfolio resets." It should be a direct pipeline of capital to the people stewarding our soil. Creekside is already aligned with where the market must go:
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Diversifying Demand: We aren't waiting for one "Big Tech" buyer. We are connecting high-net-worth individuals and philanthropic capital directly to the land.
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Moving Payments Forward: We’ve already moved $2.89M into farmers’ hands before the traditional market was ready.
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Leading with the Problem: We don't just sell "high-integrity credits." We solve the timing gap that keeps farmers from transitioning.
We’re not replacing the carbon market—we’re helping it work better.
How You Can Respond
The market’s fragility is an invitation to build something more resilient. We are shifting the conversation from distant offsets to immediate action.
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Support the people who grow our food and protect our water now by using carbon credits as the mechanism.
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Help us bridge the 18-month gap that keeps regenerative practices out of reach for most farmers. Find out how >>
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Help stabilize a market that’s still finding its footing.
Bottom Line
"If a single buyer can slow down the market, that’s not a supply problem—it’s a capital problem. At Creekside, we’re not just participating in the market; we’re helping rebuild it to work for farmers, and for a system that needs to stand on more than a few buyers.
We believe the next phase of this market will be defined not just by corporate commitments, but by diversified capital, earlier payments, and a deeper connection to the land.